World stocks have to run this year; however, the likelihood of a correction of 10% or more is high, based on polls of market strategists, with the severity of the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic being the biggest threat.
2019 was a bumper year for shares, with all 17 top world indexes polled ending the year higher than where they began.
Nevertheless, all but one is in the red thus far this year, with most losses sustained over the past five trading days amid cautions that the coronavirus pandemic will become a pandemic, disturbing supply chains and dealing a major blow to the world economy.
Fears of extreme economic harm, even a global recession, have sent the all-country equity index to a 2-1/2-month low, wiping virtually $3 trillion off its value this week.
It has pushed safe-haven gold back towards a seven-year high and benchmark U.S. Treasury bond yields near a record low.
Nonetheless, the bull run in global shares was anticipated to extend for at least another six months, based on 74 of 100 analysts in response to an extra question. Approximately 60 of those stated it would last over a year.
The February 13-25 poll of over 250 analysts, brokers, and strategists, mainly taken before this week’s massive sell-off, showed all 17 indexes had been anticipated to grow over the rest of this year.
However, gains will be a lot weaker than 2019, and London’s FTSE will end this year below, where it completed 2019, based on the poll.